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Sample below is the service of June, 19 2011. After the market is closed.
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Sample - EURUSD 19th June, 2011 Video
Sample - EURUSD 19th June, 2011
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 17th June, 2011. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
We had expected some upwards movement but not as much as we got, and the hourly wave count was invalidated.
This upwards movement is highly likely to be another second wave correction. It has reached just above the 0.618 ratio of the first wave it is correcting, which is a typical place for second waves to end.
We now have a series of three first and second waves complete. If this wave count is correct then the next downwards movement for the euro could be explosive. A series of first and second waves is like a wound up spring containing potential energy. This energy may be released next week in downwards movement.
Wave 3 pink must take price beyond the end of wave 1 pink below 1.4048. This rule has not yet been met and so there is still further down to go if this is a third wave. The target for wave 3 pink remains the same: it will reach 1.618 the length of wave 1 pink at 1.3319.
The longer term expectation for wave 3 black remains the same. It must move price substantially beyond the end of wave 1 black at 1.1875. Wave 3 black will subdivide into an impulse with blue 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. We are still within blue wave 1 at this stage. There is a long way down to go.
Both of the hourly wave counts for last analysis were invalidated by upwards movement. Movement above 1.4318, the low of 1 green, has eliminated the possibility that this upwards movement is a fourth wave correction.
Wave 2 orange has corrected just over the 0.618 fibonacci ratio of wave 1 orange. There is no fibonacci ratio between waves A and C purple within wave 2 orange.
Ratios within wave A purple are: wave 3 aqua has no fibonacci ratio to wave 1 aqua and wave 5 aqua is just 4 pips short of 1.618 the length of wave 1 aqua.
Ratios within wave C purple are: wave 3 aqua has no fibonacci ratio to wave 1 aqua and wave 5 aqua is 9 pips longer than 1.618 the length of wave 1 aqua.
We may use Elliott’s technique to draw a small trend channel about wave 2 orange. When this channel is breached by at least one full candlestick below it then we shall have indication that the correction is over and the next third wave down has begun.
At 1.3653 wave 3 orange will reach 1.618 the length of wave 1 orange. This target should be reached within 48 hours.
At 1.3510 wave 3 green will reach 2.618 the length of wave 1 green. This target may be reached by the end of next week.
Any further upwards movement of wave 2 orange may not move beyond the start of wave 1 orange. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1.4497.
Alternate Daily Wave Count.
At this stage recent downwards movement is a three wave structure. This is the case in the early stages for all five wave structures as 1-2-3 and A-B-C are essentially the same, and 1-2, 1-2 looks very much like A-B-C.
This wave count is a very unlikely technical possibility. This upwards movement for wave C blue so far does not fit at all into a parallel channel, and there is no precedent for such a strange looking impulse on the euro back to June 2008. Normally the euro exhibits impulsive structures which fit reasonably well into parallel channels.
Movement below 1.4073 would invalidate this wave count. At that stage downwards movement for wave 2 green would not be a clear three wave structure and it would be developing into a five.
This is an important price point for us next week. Movement below this point will give a lot of confidence in our main wave count.
Only if our main wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.4497 would we seriously consider this alternate. If that happens this will be our main wave count.